Carlos Toledo · cert-machine

The machine proves it — or breaks it

AI produces mathematical claims faster than anyone can read them, and the graders that check those claims mostly compare decimals. This machine decides claims — other people's and its own — in exact arithmetic, without ever running the claimant's code. It refuted a published constant at its twelfth digit, measured what an ordinary tolerance grader actually accepts (89.5% of submissions that are provably wrong), and settled two values of a sequence conjectured open since 2019. Every verdict is a re-runnable certificate: proved, disproved, or honestly refused — never a probability argument.

No probability arguments and no digit-matching. A claim is admitted only by exact arithmetic on whole numbers, and an instrument that cannot decide refuses instead of guessing. When a page here says REFUTED, that is a proof, and the falsifying witness is printed beside it.

start here

The audits lead. The theorem is the calibration.

Only a machine that can prove a theorem should be trusted to refuse one. The audits are what the instruments are for; the theorems below them are the evidence that the instruments are strong enough for their refusals to count.

The first of them ships as a package anyone can install: prime env install carlos-toledo/break-the-grader puts the environment behind the first card on your own machine, where its forgery battery runs before it will score anything. What it measured.

the measurement · adversaries with a proofWe graded the gradersAlmost every mathematical grader compares a number to a stored decimal within a tolerance. Against 4,000 submissions that are PROVABLY wrong — each one outside a certified enclosure — that grader accepts 89.5% of them, and a grader that compares against the certificate instead accepts none. The adversarial set is not written by hand: a certified enclosure mints it without limit, which is why the certificates had to exist first. One of the canaries is not synthetic — it is a number a real problem thread published.104 facts, each sha-pinned to its certificate · measured offline a refutation · erdős #852The constant that was a rounding errorA constant for an open Erdős problem, published with frontier-model help, quoted to 13 decimal places, with no error bound. It is wrong from digit 12 — and the wrong digits are exactly what an ordinary floating-point loop prints. The constant was not near-right with unlucky endings. It was the bug, published. The corrected value is certified here and the correction is now public in the problem’s own thread.refuted at digit 12 · correction certified and public six theorems · re-verifiedWe checked the AI’s homeworkSix mathematical results produced with frontier-model help — among them a counterexample to a bound of Maxwell’s and an Erdős problem open since 1958 — re-verified here from the manuscripts, by code that never ran a line of the authors’. 5 held, 1 came back partial, none was refuted. The finding is not the tally: in all 6, the part a machine can check held, and the part that carries the theorem stayed out of reach.92 checks · 21 deliberate forgeries, every one rejected a theorem · erdős #510A sequence that was climbing turns downMercer proved the first two values of Chowla’s cosine dip in 2019 and conjectured the rest. This machine proved the third, and then the fourth: λ(5) = −L(1,2,4,5,6), an algebraic number of degree exactly five, with the minimal polynomial exhibited. One family in the reduction admits no classical weight at all — a structural obstruction the page proves fresh at every build. And a consequence needs nothing further: λ(6) < λ(5), so the sequence that had been climbing turns down.audited over 139,246 sets, 0 refuters · not peer-reviewed
the theorem, in full

How a trapezoid got a theorem

The domain is deliberately inconvenient: a convex trapezoid with side slopes 6 and 18/5, no symmetry axis, nothing any existing proof technique can grab. The machine proves its second Neumann eigenvalue is simple by certifying a spectral gap — upper bounds from an interval Galerkin method, lower bounds from exact-rational finite elements with eigenvalue counts by interval inertia. It then builds a trial function that solves the eigenvalue equation EXACTLY — a sum of Bessel fans anchored at the four corners — and certifies that its boundary defect is a hundred-thousandth, which pins the true eigenfunction within an explicit distance of the trial.

Then the geography: every interior point is assigned, in exact rational arithmetic, to a deep core, a boundary collar, or a corner sector — and each region is killed by its own argument. Core and collar cells die by comparison against certified interior witnesses; the corner sectors die by certified series expansions, where the delicate corner needs a Bessel ladder identity to tame a divergent second derivative whose singular part arrives, provably, with the helpful sign. Zero cells survive. The extremes are on the boundary, the hottest point is vertex A and nowhere else, and the whole chain — eight records, every red control firing — re-runs from one command in about two minutes. The full account:

the report · the archived release.

the refutation, in full

How a floating-point bug became a published constant

Erdős problem #852 has a constant attached to it. In 2026 a value for that constant appeared, produced with frontier-model help and quoted to 13 decimal places. This machine enclosed the same constant in exact arithmetic. The two agree for a while and then they do not.

published  0.0752403861777
certified  0.0752403861783092455893…
                        ↑ wrong from here

The interesting part is which wrong digits. The obvious way to compute this constant is a loop: take a few million prime numbers, turn each into a factor slightly larger than one, and multiply them together in ordinary floating point. Past a certain size those factors are so close to one that rounding makes them exactly one, and they stop contributing anything at all. The running product goes still. Going still is what convergence looks like, so the loop appears to have settled, and it prints.

The published constant is what that loop prints, digit for digit. It was not approximately right with unlucky endings. It was the bug.

That is why one wrong constant is worth a whole page. Every ordinary defence fails against this. Rerunning it reproduces the same wrong digits, because two independent floating-point implementations agree with each other rather than with the truth. Spending more compute changes nothing, because the loop is already ignoring almost every factor you would be adding. Checking the digits against a reference value fails whenever the reference came out of the same kind of pipeline — which is how a bad number gets into an answer key and stays there.

What settles it is arithmetic that never rounds. The refutation here is a strict inequality between two whole numbers, with a denominator millions of digits long and no approximation anywhere in it. The corrected value is trapped between two exact fractions that agree for 15 decimal places, so the true constant cannot be anywhere near the published one.

The correction has been public in the problem’s own thread on erdosproblems.com since 27 August 2026. The full audit → — the refutation as integers, the certified correction, and a catalogue of the other ways a mathematical answer key goes wrong without anyone noticing.

the shelf

The record, ordered by weight

the eval · live boardThe matmul eval: ground truth is a proofFrontier models are asked for exact rank-R matmul tensor decompositions; every proposal is certified or refuted in exact rational arithmetic. No judge, no rubric, no answer key to contaminate — a proof either exists or it does not.364 proposals graded · zero subtly-wrong survivors audit · AI-discovered algorithmsThe AI-discovered algorithms, certifiedAlphaEvolve’s rank-48 ⟨4,4,4⟩ certified over Z[i]; AlphaTensor’s rank-47 verified over F2 and REFUTED over Q — the speedup provably requires characteristic 2. Both decided from commit-pinned bytes at every build.10 algorithms re-decided each build erdős #1038 · the infimum, bracketedA certified bracket for the Erdős–Herzog–Piranian infimumHow small can the set where a monic polynomial stays below 1 be? The infimum is bracketed here in certified interval arithmetic, both ends unconditional — the lower end by a forcing argument needing no tail estimate and no assumed minimizer — and Tao’s model Problem 4.1 is answered affirmatively for every ε. Three AI-assisted proofs of the exact value are currently claimed and none independently examined, so nothing here assumes any of them.1.828 ≤ inf ≤ 1.83443 · both ends certified here audit · the AI-held recordThe kissing ledger: dimension eleven, decidedK(11)’s record moved three times in eighteen months — every mover an AI, each validated by its producer’s own verifier. The whole ladder (AlphaEvolve 593, EinsteinArena 594, the Station’s three exact 604s) re-decided here in exact Z[√2] arithmetic from published bytes; the one claim with no public bytes measured as NEEDS DATA.K(11) ≥ 604 · certified from the claimants’ own bytes erdős #510 · a theoremλ(4), settledThe third exact value of Chowla's cosine dip. Mercer proved λ(2) and λ(3) in 2019, conjectured λ(4), wrote that he did not know how to evaluate it, and left a strategy. The machine executed the strategy and finished it: all nine remaining families closed, thresholds derived rather than transcribed, every finite remainder decided in exact arithmetic. λ(4) = −L(1,2,3,4), the root of 512y³ − 1227y² + 600y + 125 near 1.51956 — machine-derived, re-proved at every build, and stated with its verification status beside it.not peer-reviewed · the full record re-derives at build certified theorem · hot spotsThe hot spot stays on the boundaryNot one domain but a continuum: for every c in [0.845, 0.85] the convex trapezoid A(0,0) B(1,0) C(c,9/10) D(1/4,9/10) has a simple second Neumann eigenvalue whose eigenfunction attains its extrema on the boundary only — to our knowledge the first certified hot-spots result for a positive-measure FAMILY, with the original specimen c = 17/20 as its right endpoint. The second Neumann eigenfunction of a convex trapezoid with no symmetry axis — to our knowledge the first certified hot-spots domain outside every analytically proven class (all triangles took Judge–Mondal an Annals paper; lip domains, L-tiled polygons and symmetric quadrangles are the other proven classes, while in high dimension convex sets can FAIL the conjecture, making the planar convex case the live one) — attains its maximum and minimum on the boundary only. Corollary: the hot spot is AT vertex A, and only there. Eight machine-checked records, a cell partition decided in exact rationals, corner coefficients certified at two independent annuli, and red controls that fire. One domain, one theorem, one corollary; the quadrilateral conjecture itself stays open.μ₁ ∈ [12.0209761, 12.0223984], simple · the chain re-runs in ~2 min

All 49 reports → — the AI-verification shelf, the Erdős problems, the applied fronts in aerospace and energy, and the classical ground the instruments were proven on first. Every number on every page is recomputed from the certificates and records at build time, and a build that drifts refuses to ship.

the other half

A certificate settles a number. It does not make anyone look at it.

Charts and graders both assert things, and neither distinguishes what the data forces from what the renderer or the tolerance chose. Everything above is the grader half. The instruments are the other one: nine of them, the same arithmetic, none of the gates.

They are not illustrations of the results above. The famous black-hole image is an argmax under a prior whose optimum is not unique — one sky chosen from the set the data still allow, and the set is drawn. A published calibration line is one curve out of the set 20 NIST standards admit: assuming only that the response is monotone, the honest interval is 132× the reported ±; joining the dots it is 1.0×, which says that precision was earned by the experiment and not by the model. And one plate is a picture of this repository’s own lower-bound certificate, shaded so the bright seams are where the argument nearly ran out.

Every mark on those pages says what it is standing on. Solid where an exact decision backs it, dashed where the arithmetic was not verified, dotted where something other than the data chose it, and no mark at all where the instrument declined — stroke rather than colour, so it survives greyscale. One rule composes them: a mark’s standing is the weakest standing on its path to the pixel. The consequence that does the work is that an argmax over a non-unique optimum yields chosen, not decided, which is the shape of every regularised inverse problem ever published.

what is not claimed there

Nothing on those pages is gated: no number has a certificate row this build checks, none of them can refuse a deploy, and make test does not cover them. That is a fact about ceremony rather than about the mathematics — two of the nine draw a certificate straight from the shelf above, and five decide their headline number in exact integer or rational arithmetic — so each page states which of the two it is claiming, beside the number rather than at the bottom. The encoding itself is narrowed against real prior art and says so: uncertainty visualization, provenance visualization, verifiable visualization, and the lineup protocol, which one of those pages reinvented before it knew the name.

why you can trust this

One rule, and what it costs

Everything here rests on a single rule, and most of the engineering is the cost of keeping it.

the machine

How a claim becomes a certificate

the machine
Generate at scale, screen in float, certify the survivors exactly. Select any stage for what it does — every count is read off ledger.json at build time.
ENUMERATE · 11 FAMILIES 819,152 objects SCREEN · FLOAT 17,741 pass CERTIFY · EXACT 16,943 decided HIT · CERTIFIED 2,274 REJECT · PROVED 14,668 REFUSED · IN THE LOOP 1 LEDGER · THE GATES ledger.json · 53/54 batteries dedup by key only certificates
The loop, in five stops. The screen may only prune; the instruments alone decide; REJECT and REFUSED are terminal by design. The full drawing — every family, every instrument, the closed-form hunt — is on the control page.

The control page carries the full drawing, live: every family, every instrument, every battery executed at its build (never remembered), the full ledger decomposition, drift status. If you have a claim you want put through it, the claims desk takes one: certified, refuted, or honestly refused, published whichever way it falls — 18 decided so far, 0 of them sent by somebody else.

the tally

What it has decided so far

theorem programs
3
Chowla's cosine dip — λ(4) and λ(5) both exact, and with λ(5) the sequence provably turns down at 6; the hot-spots trapezoid with its vertex-A corollary; the MFG splitting pair with its bracket table — every one re-proved or re-walked at build
published claims decided
18
14 CERTIFIED · 1 PARTIAL · 1 REFUTED · 1 NEEDS DATA · 1 MIXED — every row derived from the record that decided it; 1 queued and not counted, and 0 submitted by somebody else. The 6 AI-claimed theorems in the next tile are 6 of these rows, not a separate total.
AI-claimed theorems re-verified
6
5 held, 1 partial, none refuted — checked from the manuscripts, never from the authors’ code
AI-discovered algorithms re-decided
10
at every build, from commit-pinned bytes — AlphaEvolve’s rank-48 ⟨4,4,4⟩ certified over Z[i]; AlphaTensor’s rank-47 verified over F2 and refuted over Q
model proposals graded
364
115 certified, each an exact theorem · none subtly wrong — nothing false has ever been graded correct
closed forms disproved
54,628,296
each one an exact proof, out of 54,629,173 tested — and zero discoveries claimed
Hénon points, counted exactly
EXACTLY 1,696
period 16, with a proof that there are no others anywhere in the plane — 1,419,655,025 boxes exhausted. The classical case the instruments were calibrated on before they were pointed at anything new.
the same instrument, pointed at the world

SkyAudit — one real day over New York, every flight decided

A real, hash-pinned day of New York helicopter traffic — 82 aircraft, 382 flights — replayed on a map. Every trail is coloured by a verdict rather than by telemetry: each flight is re-flown on paper by an electric aircraft, using that manufacturer’s own published numbers, under the FAA’s energy-reserve rule, and decided.

Beta’s ALIA can certifiably cover 100 of the 382 flights and needs exactly 10 aircraft to do it — the lower half proved by pigeonhole, the upper half by an actual schedule. Joby, Archer and Eve publish too little to certify a single fleet, and the app says NEEDS DATA rather than guessing, with the exact number that would flip it printed beside the verdict.

Open SkyAudit → — the replay, the certificate panel, the fleet frontier and the what-if sliders, live. Data © adsb.lol (ODbL). Also live: the São Paulo pack — the world’s busiest urban helicopter market, decided under Brazil’s own reserve rule.

for people building evals

A grader that cannot be fooled

The instrument that audits a published claim also grades a model’s output, and that is turning out to be the more useful job. A model proposes an exact object; the grader re-derives it from whole numbers and answers CERTIFIED or REFUTED. There is no judge model, no rubric, and no stored answer key — so there is nothing to leak into a training set and nothing to game. The gap between “graded correct” and “is correct” that a policy would learn to exploit does not exist, because the grade is the proof.

That is measured, not asserted. Every campaign opens with deliberate forgeries — including one wrong by a billionth, invisible to any floating-point check — and if a single forgery grades as correct the run aborts before it touches real work. Across every real-model campaign so far, 364 proposals, nothing false has ever been graded correct and no certified row has ever turned out to be wrong.

The honest limit: this works for claims that come down to finitely many exact arithmetic facts — exhibit a witness, verify an identity, bound a quantity. It does not work for mathematics at large, and nothing here pretends otherwise. Inside that boundary the same grader can sit unchanged inside a training loop, with the verifier strictly stronger than the thing it is grading.

And the grader itself is now measured, not assumed. Point a suite of provably-wrong submissions — minted from certified enclosures, so each one is outside a certificate by construction — at the four grader shapes, and an absolute-tolerance grader accepts 89.5% of them while a grader that compares against the certificate accepts none. We graded the graders →

The oracle, packaged → — one curl, no dependencies, running on your laptop in under a minute: the claim schema, the tool definition a model calls mid-generation, the paste box, the paper draft, the ledgers.

rerun a proof

Check a result yourself, in ten seconds

Every headline claim detaches into a certificate — a JSON file of exact numbers — plus a verifier in plain Python: standard library only, nothing to install, zero code shared with the engine. Each verifier re-derives the mathematics from the certificate alone, re-hashes the pinned sources, must refute a deliberately forged value before it will exit green, and prints the sha256 of the certificate it checked.

python3 verify/verify_erdos852.py certs/erdos852-certificate.json
python3 verify/verify_keller.py   certs/keller-certificate.json
python3 verify/verify_strassen.py certs/strassen-certificate.json
sources

Run from a clone of the repository (add --sources corpus/sources to re-hash the pinned source bytes too), or download the certificate and verifier right here — the proof travels without the machine.

the certificates

Proofs that travel without the machine

certificatewhat it holdsre-verify
erdos852-certificate.jsonBoth Erdős #852 constants as exact data: the c0 window re-decidable at 130 digits, the C∗ refutation as strict integer inequalities with no tail bound.verify_erdos852.py
keller-certificate.jsonThe Jacobian/Hessian counterexample corpus — every polynomial as explicit exact rational monomials; determinants and collisions re-derivable from the file alone.verify_keller.py
strassen-certificate.json10 fast matrix-multiplication algorithms as exact tensor identities over Q and F2 — including AlphaTensor’s rank-47, decided both ways.verify_strassen.py

Those three carry a detached verifier: standard library only, nothing to install, zero code shared with the engine. The other 65 records are gated by a battery instead — re-derived at every build, with planted forgeries that must fire — and the whole shelf, with what each one holds, is on the machine page.

Code, corpus, and full provenance: github.com/carlostoledo1891/cert-machine — MIT, no dependencies. Instruments lifted from a private source lab are hash-pinned in PROVENANCE.json; patches are declared so they can never be mistaken for drift.

the limits

What this is not

This is one machine and one operator. The trust base is stated rather than hidden: V8’s big-integer arithmetic and IEEE-754 correct rounding are assumed correct, and a handful of named external theorems are consumed and cross-checked rather than machine-proved. Nothing here is a formal proof in the sense of Lean or Coq, and no page claims to be.

What it does meet is the working standard of the computer-assisted-proof tradition — Tucker on the Lorenz attractor, Galias on the Hénon censuses, whose published counts this machine reproduces independently. That is one rung below a formal proof and several rungs above a decimal that looked convincing.

What independence means here, exactly. Independence from the CLAIMANT: when this machine decides someone else's claim, it does not run their code and their code is never in the trust path. It does not mean every checker is a clean-room rewrite of every producer. Two instruments reuse code across the producer/checker line, both times this lab's own and both deliberately: instruments/mfgcap IMPORTS the frozen verifier published with the congestion result rather than editing it — freezing those bytes is the point, and they are re-extracted from the sent page at every build — and instruments/lemniscate was crossed from this lab's own bench with its require paths repointed at the certifier that bench already used. Where a page claims clean-room independence — the λ(4) clause walk, the #1038 forcing re-check, the band verifier — it says so on that page, and it means it.