{
 "what": "Site-specific DNV alpha factors (waves) from ECMWF open-data forecasts vs NOAA altimeter passes, by the method that made DNV Table 4-1 (the 2005-07 JIP as reconstructed by Wilcken 2012), with day-bootstrap 90% intervals, beside DNV-OS-H101 Tables 4-1..4-3; and exact counts of how often the satellite saw Hs above OPLIM when the forecast was at or below the table's alpha*OPLIM. alpha is a STATISTICAL estimate (float64), not a certified enclosure; the counts are exact.",
 "method": {
  "recipe": "J (DNV JIP via Wilcken 2012 §4.1)",
  "P": 0.0001,
  "leadBins": {
   "12": [
    9,
    18
   ],
   "24": [
    18,
    30
   ],
   "36": [
    30,
    42
   ],
   "48": [
    42,
    60
   ],
   "72": [
    60,
    84
   ]
  },
  "minPairs": 30,
  "bootstrap": {
   "resamples": 400,
   "unit": "UTC day of the pass",
   "seed": 20261006,
   "interval": "5th-95th percentile"
  },
  "caveats": [
   "the altimeter measurement error and the 100 km collocation inflate the error SD: the site alpha leans low (conservative)",
   "lead is counted from the 00 UTC base time; the open-data run is available about 8 h later, so operational leads are ~8 h longer",
   "the Gaussian error model is extrapolated to about its 1-in-1,000 tail; 1e-4 cannot be observed in three years",
   "Tables 4-4/4-5 (monitoring) and the wind table 4-6 are not re-derived here"
  ]
 },
 "calibration": {
  "cells": [
   {
    "designHs": 1,
    "TPOP": 12,
    "reconstructed": 0.6509,
    "table4_1": 0.65,
    "dev": 0.0009,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 1,
    "TPOP": 24,
    "reconstructed": 0.6306,
    "table4_1": 0.63,
    "dev": 0.0006,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 1,
    "TPOP": 36,
    "reconstructed": 0.6204,
    "table4_1": 0.62,
    "dev": 0.0004,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 1,
    "TPOP": 48,
    "reconstructed": 0.5999,
    "table4_1": 0.6,
    "dev": -0.0001,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 1,
    "TPOP": 72,
    "reconstructed": 0.5586,
    "table4_1": 0.55,
    "dev": 0.0086,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 2,
    "TPOP": 12,
    "reconstructed": 0.7617,
    "table4_1": 0.76,
    "dev": 0.0017,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 2,
    "TPOP": 24,
    "reconstructed": 0.7388,
    "table4_1": 0.73,
    "dev": 0.0088,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 2,
    "TPOP": 36,
    "reconstructed": 0.7048,
    "table4_1": 0.71,
    "dev": -0.0052,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 2,
    "TPOP": 48,
    "reconstructed": 0.6784,
    "table4_1": 0.68,
    "dev": -0.0016,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 2,
    "TPOP": 72,
    "reconstructed": 0.6097,
    "table4_1": 0.63,
    "dev": -0.0203,
    "within0.02": false
   },
   {
    "designHs": 4,
    "TPOP": 12,
    "reconstructed": 0.7895,
    "table4_1": 0.79,
    "dev": -0.0005,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 4,
    "TPOP": 24,
    "reconstructed": 0.7489,
    "table4_1": 0.76,
    "dev": -0.0111,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 4,
    "TPOP": 36,
    "reconstructed": 0.715,
    "table4_1": 0.73,
    "dev": -0.015,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 4,
    "TPOP": 48,
    "reconstructed": 0.6823,
    "table4_1": 0.71,
    "dev": -0.0277,
    "within0.02": false
   },
   {
    "designHs": 4,
    "TPOP": 72,
    "reconstructed": 0.6248,
    "table4_1": 0.68,
    "dev": -0.0552,
    "within0.02": false
   },
   {
    "designHs": 6,
    "TPOP": 12,
    "reconstructed": 0.8053,
    "table4_1": 0.8,
    "dev": 0.0053,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 6,
    "TPOP": 24,
    "reconstructed": 0.7756,
    "table4_1": 0.78,
    "dev": -0.0044,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 6,
    "TPOP": 36,
    "reconstructed": 0.7485,
    "table4_1": 0.76,
    "dev": -0.0115,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 6,
    "TPOP": 48,
    "reconstructed": 0.7207,
    "table4_1": 0.74,
    "dev": -0.0193,
    "within0.02": true
   },
   {
    "designHs": 6,
    "TPOP": 72,
    "reconstructed": 0.6631,
    "table4_1": 0.72,
    "dev": -0.0569,
    "within0.02": false
   }
  ],
  "within": 16,
  "of": 20,
  "gate": "at least 16 of 20 cells within +-0.02 of DNV Table 4-1",
  "pass": true,
  "redLiteralReading": {
   "within": 0,
   "refused": true
  }
 },
 "source": {
  "matchups": "corpus/janela/regions/sergipe/matchups.json.gz",
  "rows": 3096
 },
 "sites": {
  "sergipe": {
   "pairs": 3096,
   "days": 366,
   "cells": [
    {
     "designHs": 1,
     "TPOP": 12,
     "n": 66,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.65,
      "4-2": 0.68,
      "4-3": 0.72
     },
     "bias": -0.2831,
     "sd": 0.0988,
     "alpha": 0.6387,
     "ci90": [
      0.6102,
      0.6679
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "the 90% interval contains the table value",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 1,
     "TPOP": 24,
     "n": 113,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.63,
      "4-2": 0.66,
      "4-3": 0.69
     },
     "bias": -0.287,
     "sd": 0.1122,
     "alpha": 0.617,
     "ci90": [
      0.5914,
      0.6435
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "the 90% interval contains the table value",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 1,
     "TPOP": 36,
     "n": 109,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.62,
      "4-2": 0.65,
      "4-3": 0.68
     },
     "bias": -0.278,
     "sd": 0.1,
     "alpha": 0.6379,
     "ci90": [
      0.618,
      0.6602
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "the 90% interval contains the table value",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 1,
     "TPOP": 48,
     "n": 163,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.6,
      "4-2": 0.63,
      "4-3": 0.66
     },
     "bias": -0.2796,
     "sd": 0.1084,
     "alpha": 0.6253,
     "ci90": [
      0.6039,
      0.6479
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "site alpha ABOVE the table (the North Sea table is conservative here)",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 1,
     "TPOP": 72,
     "n": 221,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.55,
      "4-2": 0.58,
      "4-3": 0.61
     },
     "bias": -0.265,
     "sd": 0.1137,
     "alpha": 0.6298,
     "ci90": [
      0.6136,
      0.6483
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "site alpha ABOVE the table (the North Sea table is conservative here)",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 2,
     "TPOP": 12,
     "n": 70,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.76,
      "4-2": 0.8,
      "4-3": 0.84
     },
     "bias": -0.4942,
     "sd": 0.1698,
     "alpha": 0.6878,
     "ci90": [
      0.6656,
      0.7154
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "site alpha BELOW the table (the North Sea table is NOT conservative here)",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 2,
     "TPOP": 24,
     "n": 95,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.73,
      "4-2": 0.77,
      "4-3": 0.8
     },
     "bias": -0.4636,
     "sd": 0.1411,
     "alpha": 0.7172,
     "ci90": [
      0.7024,
      0.7325
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "the 90% interval contains the table value",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 2,
     "TPOP": 36,
     "n": 107,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.71,
      "4-2": 0.75,
      "4-3": 0.78
     },
     "bias": -0.4853,
     "sd": 0.1658,
     "alpha": 0.691,
     "ci90": [
      0.6741,
      0.7116
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "the 90% interval contains the table value",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 2,
     "TPOP": 48,
     "n": 149,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.68,
      "4-2": 0.71,
      "4-3": 0.75
     },
     "bias": -0.4667,
     "sd": 0.1597,
     "alpha": 0.7024,
     "ci90": [
      0.6896,
      0.7167
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "site alpha ABOVE the table (the North Sea table is conservative here)",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 2,
     "TPOP": 72,
     "n": 202,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.63,
      "4-2": 0.66,
      "4-3": 0.69
     },
     "bias": -0.4784,
     "sd": 0.177,
     "alpha": 0.6849,
     "ci90": [
      0.6719,
      0.7015
     ],
     "boot": 400,
     "reading": "site alpha ABOVE the table (the North Sea table is conservative here)",
     "verdict": "ESTIMATED"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 4,
     "TPOP": 12,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.79,
      "4-2": 0.83,
      "4-3": 0.87
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 4 m at lead 9-18 h; at least 30 needed"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 4,
     "TPOP": 24,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.76,
      "4-2": 0.8,
      "4-3": 0.84
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 4 m at lead 18-30 h; at least 30 needed"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 4,
     "TPOP": 36,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.73,
      "4-2": 0.77,
      "4-3": 0.8
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 4 m at lead 30-42 h; at least 30 needed"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 4,
     "TPOP": 48,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.71,
      "4-2": 0.75,
      "4-3": 0.78
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 4 m at lead 42-60 h; at least 30 needed"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 4,
     "TPOP": 72,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.68,
      "4-2": 0.71,
      "4-3": 0.75
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 4 m at lead 60-84 h; at least 30 needed"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 6,
     "TPOP": 12,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.8,
      "4-2": 0.84,
      "4-3": 0.88
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 6 m at lead 9-18 h; at least 30 needed"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 6,
     "TPOP": 24,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.78,
      "4-2": 0.82,
      "4-3": 0.86
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 6 m at lead 18-30 h; at least 30 needed"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 6,
     "TPOP": 36,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.76,
      "4-2": 0.8,
      "4-3": 0.84
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 6 m at lead 30-42 h; at least 30 needed"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 6,
     "TPOP": 48,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.74,
      "4-2": 0.78,
      "4-3": 0.81
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 6 m at lead 42-60 h; at least 30 needed"
    },
    {
     "designHs": 6,
     "TPOP": 72,
     "n": 0,
     "dnv": {
      "4-1": 0.72,
      "4-2": 0.76,
      "4-3": 0.79
     },
     "verdict": "REFUSED",
     "why": "0 pairs in the observed-Hs group 6 m at lead 60-84 h; at least 30 needed"
    }
   ],
   "groups": {
    "1m@12h": {
     "n": 66,
     "bias": -0.2831,
     "sd": 0.0988
    },
    "1m@24h": {
     "n": 113,
     "bias": -0.287,
     "sd": 0.1122
    },
    "1m@36h": {
     "n": 109,
     "bias": -0.278,
     "sd": 0.1
    },
    "1m@48h": {
     "n": 163,
     "bias": -0.2796,
     "sd": 0.1084
    },
    "1m@72h": {
     "n": 221,
     "bias": -0.265,
     "sd": 0.1137
    },
    "2m@12h": {
     "n": 70,
     "bias": -0.4942,
     "sd": 0.1698
    },
    "2m@24h": {
     "n": 95,
     "bias": -0.4636,
     "sd": 0.1411
    },
    "2m@36h": {
     "n": 107,
     "bias": -0.4853,
     "sd": 0.1658
    },
    "2m@48h": {
     "n": 149,
     "bias": -0.4667,
     "sd": 0.1597
    },
    "2m@72h": {
     "n": 202,
     "bias": -0.4784,
     "sd": 0.177
    },
    "3m@12h": {
     "n": 9,
     "bias": -0.7548,
     "sd": 0.0935
    },
    "3m@24h": {
     "n": 6,
     "bias": -0.8501,
     "sd": 0.1653
    },
    "3m@36h": {
     "n": 13,
     "bias": -0.7872,
     "sd": 0.1355
    },
    "3m@48h": {
     "n": 11,
     "bias": -0.867,
     "sd": 0.2153
    },
    "3m@72h": {
     "n": 19,
     "bias": -0.8457,
     "sd": 0.1832
    }
   },
   "exceedance": [
    {
     "OPLIM": "3/2",
     "TPOP": 12,
     "alphaTable4_1": "141/200",
     "OPWF": "423/400",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 54,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 2,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "3/2",
     "TPOP": 24,
     "alphaTable4_1": "17/25",
     "OPWF": "51/50",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 74,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "3/2",
     "TPOP": 36,
     "alphaTable4_1": "133/200",
     "OPWF": "399/400",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 62,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 2,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "3/2",
     "TPOP": 48,
     "alphaTable4_1": "16/25",
     "OPWF": "24/25",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 71,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 1,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "3/2",
     "TPOP": 72,
     "alphaTable4_1": "59/100",
     "OPWF": "177/200",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 52,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "2",
     "TPOP": 12,
     "alphaTable4_1": "19/25",
     "OPWF": "38/25",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 118,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 11,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "2",
     "TPOP": 24,
     "alphaTable4_1": "73/100",
     "OPWF": "73/50",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 179,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 2,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "2",
     "TPOP": 36,
     "alphaTable4_1": "71/100",
     "OPWF": "71/50",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 177,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 5,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "2",
     "TPOP": 48,
     "alphaTable4_1": "17/25",
     "OPWF": "34/25",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 253,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 4,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "2",
     "TPOP": 72,
     "alphaTable4_1": "63/100",
     "OPWF": "63/50",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 299,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 2,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "5/2",
     "TPOP": 12,
     "alphaTable4_1": "307/400",
     "OPWF": "307/160",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 140,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 5,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "5/2",
     "TPOP": 24,
     "alphaTable4_1": "59/80",
     "OPWF": "59/32",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 209,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 5,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "5/2",
     "TPOP": 36,
     "alphaTable4_1": "143/200",
     "OPWF": "143/80",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 208,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 1,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "5/2",
     "TPOP": 48,
     "alphaTable4_1": "11/16",
     "OPWF": "55/32",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 303,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 5,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "5/2",
     "TPOP": 72,
     "alphaTable4_1": "257/400",
     "OPWF": "257/160",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 393,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 1,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "3",
     "TPOP": 12,
     "alphaTable4_1": "31/40",
     "OPWF": "93/40",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 145,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "3",
     "TPOP": 24,
     "alphaTable4_1": "149/200",
     "OPWF": "447/200",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 214,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "3",
     "TPOP": 36,
     "alphaTable4_1": "18/25",
     "OPWF": "54/25",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 229,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "3",
     "TPOP": 48,
     "alphaTable4_1": "139/200",
     "OPWF": "417/200",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 320,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "3",
     "TPOP": 72,
     "alphaTable4_1": "131/200",
     "OPWF": "393/200",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 435,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "7/2",
     "TPOP": 12,
     "alphaTable4_1": "313/400",
     "OPWF": "2191/800",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 145,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "7/2",
     "TPOP": 24,
     "alphaTable4_1": "301/400",
     "OPWF": "2107/800",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 214,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "7/2",
     "TPOP": 36,
     "alphaTable4_1": "29/40",
     "OPWF": "203/80",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 229,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "7/2",
     "TPOP": 48,
     "alphaTable4_1": "281/400",
     "OPWF": "1967/800",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 323,
     "observedAboveOPLIM": 0,
     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    },
    {
     "OPLIM": "7/2",
     "TPOP": 72,
     "alphaTable4_1": "267/400",
     "OPWF": "1869/800",
     "forecastsAtOrBelowOPWF": 442,
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    {
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     "alphaTable4_1": "73/100",
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    {
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    {
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     "observedAbove1.5xOPLIM": 0
    }
   ]
  }
 }
}