{ "what": "Janela's calibrated forecast band per open-sea site and 12 h lead bin: exact conformal intervals (miss-rate 1/10) of observed/forecast Hs and of observed - forecast 10 m wind speed (m/s), from the back-archive pairs (ECMWF AIFS Single (data-driven) open data, from 2026-05-13 vs NOAA RADS NRT altimetry). The band for a forecast f is [f*lo, f*hi]; for a forecast wind (u, v), [s_lo + lo, s_hi + hi] with [s_lo, s_hi] the enclosure of sqrt(u^2+v^2), floored at 0.", "theorem": "IF the next ratio is exchangeable with the calibration ratios of its site and lead bin, THEN P(lo <= next <= hi) = (u - l)/(n + 1) exactly (>= with ties) — instruments/forecast/conformal.js", "hypothesis": "exchangeability within a site and a 12 h lead bin, over 2026-05-13..2026-10-05 (late autumn to early spring only: a seasonal hypothesis the ledger grades first); graded going forward by the ledger (exact binomial admission)", "provider": "aifs", "borrow": { "babitonga": "floripa", "sao-sebastiao": "santos", "ilha-grande": "santos", "sepetiba": "santos" }, "source": { "matchups": "corpus/janela/matchups-aifs.json.gz", "sha256": "4ce255c11f00262e1d6b3707c45654245b608416b140c71e89611eb39de7b3e7", "rows": 6659 }, "miss": "1/10", "binHours": 12, "sites": { "santos": { "bins": { "0": { "from": 0, "to": 12, "hs": { "n": 65, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "35021163331584/41356799869373", "hi": "1459273728/1235033585", "loDec": "0.846", "hiDec": "1.181", "l": 2, "u": 64, "coverage": "62/66" }, "windDiff": { "n": 65, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-2643640286530202519089013175031/1603087953297408000000000000000", "hi": "903233212849341074703382714501/250482492702720000000000000000", "loDec": "-1.649", "hiDec": "3.605", "l": 2, "u": 64, "coverage": "62/66", "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed" } }, "12": { "from": 12, "to": 132, "hs": { "n": 51, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "396558336/496023475", "hi": "176611328/153719475", "loDec": "0.799", "hiDec": "1.148", "l": 2, "u": 50, "coverage": "48/52" }, "windDiff": { "n": 51, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-908903082287056890112247548442047/598486169231032320000000000000000", "hi": "4780753305400858697505277/1094374709451030528000000", "loDec": "-1.518", "hiDec": "4.368", "l": 2, "u": 50, "coverage": "48/52", "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed" } }, "24": { "from": 24, "to": 252, "hs": { "n": 63, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "25049088/31615867", "hi": "55489331200/48092061597", "loDec": "0.792", "hiDec": "1.153", "l": 2, "u": 62, "coverage": "60/64" }, "windDiff": { "n": 63, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-1526834486826749903141329381/1108307720798208000000000000", "hi": "542015161939788835033309613/159596311794941952000000000", "loDec": "-1.377", "hiDec": "3.396", "l": 2, "u": 62, "coverage": "60/64", "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed" } }, "36": { "from": 36, "to": 372, "hs": { "n": 49, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "1256325120/1691037131", "hi": "14305517568/12182719325", "loDec": "0.742", "hiDec": "1.174", "l": 2, "u": 48, "coverage": "46/50" }, "windDiff": { "n": 49, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-1253709104174903892982340931515041/897729253846548480000000000000000", "hi": "130962726855225418238849327/23597454672537845760000000", "loDec": "-1.396", "hiDec": "5.549", "l": 2, "u": 48, "coverage": "46/50", "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed" } }, "48": { "from": 48, "to": 492, "hs": { "n": 62, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "124479078400/159652405677", "hi": "4636016640/4070650903", "loDec": "0.779", "hiDec": "1.138", "l": 2, "u": 61, "coverage": "59/63" }, "windDiff": { "n": 62, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-2466971259803698497020470392915349/1795458507693096960000000000000000", "hi": "552974585956742420145163193/156746377655746560000000000", "loDec": "-1.374", "hiDec": "3.527", "l": 2, "u": 61, "coverage": "59/63", "unit": "m/s, observed - 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