{
 "what": "Janela's calibrated forecast band per open-sea site and 12 h lead bin: exact conformal intervals (miss-rate 1/10) of observed/forecast Hs and of observed - forecast 10 m wind speed (m/s), from the back-archive pairs (NOAA GFS-Wave (WAVEWATCH III) vs NOAA RADS NRT altimetry). The band for a forecast f is [f*lo, f*hi]; for a forecast wind (u, v), [s_lo + lo, s_hi + hi] with [s_lo, s_hi] the enclosure of sqrt(u^2+v^2), floored at 0.",
 "theorem": "IF the next ratio is exchangeable with the calibration ratios of its site and lead bin, THEN P(lo <= next <= hi) = (u - l)/(n + 1) exactly (>= with ties) — instruments/forecast/conformal.js",
 "hypothesis": "exchangeability within a site and a 12 h lead bin, over 2023-07..2026-10 and all seasons; graded going forward by the ledger (exact binomial admission)",
 "region": "sergipe",
 "caveat": "The platforms stand in 13-38 m of water 5-20 km off the coast, where an altimeter footprint is land-contaminated: the passes that count (547 in three years, >= 5 points within 100 km) see the sea 40-100 km out (median mean distance 70 km), deeper and rougher than at the platforms, while the forecast is read at the model's sea node 5 km off the coast. The measured ratio band therefore carries the shelf's gradient as well as the model's error (Hs at 24 h: 1.13-1.62 x the forecast, against 0.86-1.20 at Santos): it leans HIGH for the platforms — conservative by construction, and stated wherever it decides.",
 "provider": "noaa",
 "borrow": {},
 "source": {
  "matchups": "corpus/janela/regions/sergipe/matchups-noaa.json.gz",
  "sha256": "30b92c20dd8b5d19580ab3a590ee7977e17ac6b4e248859080cce4b9be7c24e1",
  "rows": 3819
 },
 "miss": "1/10",
 "binHours": 12,
 "sites": {
  "sergipe": {
   "bins": {
    "0": {
     "from": 0,
     "to": 12,
     "hs": {
      "n": 318,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "937980/752189",
      "hi": "435312/248717",
      "loDec": "1.247",
      "hiDec": "1.750",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 304,
      "coverage": "289/319"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 318,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-23749973998273231088419/38400000000000000000000",
      "hi": "428077616499543353/145800000000000000",
      "loDec": "-0.618",
      "hiDec": "2.936",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 304,
      "coverage": "289/319",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "12": {
     "from": 12,
     "to": 132,
     "hs": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "327320/273171",
      "hi": "1941390/1168733",
      "loDec": "1.198",
      "hiDec": "1.661",
      "l": 11,
      "u": 219,
      "coverage": "208/230"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-457648067322640758367073/311040000000000000000000",
      "hi": "92776655189469206297/37324800000000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.471",
      "hiDec": "2.485",
      "l": 11,
      "u": 219,
      "coverage": "208/230",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "24": {
     "from": 24,
     "to": 252,
     "hs": {
      "n": 317,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "3271050000/2733564383",
      "hi": "1721520/975361",
      "loDec": "1.196",
      "hiDec": "1.765",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 303,
      "coverage": "288/318"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 317,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-104454046016346981786499/115200000000000000000000",
      "hi": "698603940814689918799/242611200000000000000",
      "loDec": "-0.906",
      "hiDec": "2.879",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 303,
      "coverage": "288/318",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "36": {
     "from": 36,
     "to": 372,
     "hs": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "64147680/54886991",
      "hi": "11165850/6591461",
      "loDec": "1.168",
      "hiDec": "1.693",
      "l": 11,
      "u": 219,
      "coverage": "208/230"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-179590713495522911/116640000000000000",
      "hi": "156859616672959387/60800000000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.539",
      "hiDec": "2.579",
      "l": 11,
      "u": 219,
      "coverage": "208/230",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "48": {
     "from": 48,
     "to": 492,
     "hs": {
      "n": 317,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "1635525000/1383337769",
      "hi": "1659024000/920124323",
      "loDec": "1.182",
      "hiDec": "1.803",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 303,
      "coverage": "288/318"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 317,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-41168699018959529/39487500000000000",
      "hi": "62470311989433056923421651/22809600000000000000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.042",
      "hiDec": "2.738",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 303,
      "coverage": "288/318",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "60": {
     "from": 60,
     "to": 612,
     "hs": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "3734880/3353443",
      "hi": "929232/544463",
      "loDec": "1.113",
      "hiDec": "1.706",
      "l": 11,
      "u": 219,
      "coverage": "208/230"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-1961174843925274895679013/1166400000000000000000000",
      "hi": "432238149940051739/135168000000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.681",
      "hiDec": "3.197",
      "l": 11,
      "u": 219,
      "coverage": "208/230",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "72": {
     "from": 72,
     "to": 732,
     "hs": {
      "n": 316,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "79022250/68465803",
      "hi": "879417/498068",
      "loDec": "1.154",
      "hiDec": "1.765",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 302,
      "coverage": "287/317"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 316,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-14939972977459043/11346739200000000",
      "hi": "12836176173696688529/4665600000000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.316",
      "hiDec": "2.751",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 302,
      "coverage": "287/317",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "84": {
     "from": 84,
     "to": 852,
     "hs": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "672732000/605786093",
      "hi": "3139920000/1827366997",
      "loDec": "1.110",
      "hiDec": "1.718",
      "l": 11,
      "u": 219,
      "coverage": "208/230"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-5966636997751620035513597/3790800000000000000000000",
      "hi": "4553236587537779401/1385100000000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.573",
      "hiDec": "3.287",
      "l": 11,
      "u": 219,
      "coverage": "208/230",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "96": {
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     "to": 972,
     "hs": {
      "n": 316,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "80032320/69344093",
      "hi": "109615000/61659483",
      "loDec": "1.154",
      "hiDec": "1.777",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 302,
      "coverage": "287/317"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 316,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-285251619573359171737/149299200000000000000",
      "hi": "3203638418860686293/1105920000000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.910",
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      "l": 15,
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      "coverage": "287/317",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "108": {
     "from": 108,
     "to": 1092,
     "hs": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "403716/366209",
      "hi": "22749840/12789517",
      "loDec": "1.102",
      "hiDec": "1.778",
      "l": 11,
      "u": 219,
      "coverage": "208/230"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-12617769130058657945609/4665600000000000000000",
      "hi": "130903388589021149241071/43200000000000000000000",
      "loDec": "-2.704",
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      "coverage": "208/230",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
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    "120": {
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     "hs": {
      "n": 316,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "13077072/11283473",
      "hi": "879417/495274",
      "loDec": "1.158",
      "hiDec": "1.775",
      "l": 15,
      "u": 302,
      "coverage": "287/317"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 316,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-467729218994052569/238878720000000000",
      "hi": "464776285025921/159252480000000",
      "loDec": "-1.958",
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      "coverage": "287/317",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
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    "132": {
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     "to": 1332,
     "hs": {
      "n": 229,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "1162080/1056011",
      "hi": "471744/261875",
      "loDec": "1.100",
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      "coverage": "208/230"
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     "windDiff": {
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-65324217961859200171/24261120000000000000",
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      "loDec": "-2.692",
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      "coverage": "208/230",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
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     "hs": {
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "247104/217315",
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      "loDec": "1.137",
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      "coverage": "287/317"
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     "windDiff": {
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-81415054336553911966335047/37324800000000000000000000",
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      "loDec": "-2.181",
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      "coverage": "287/317",
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "1791045000/1674351173",
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      "coverage": "208/230"
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    }
   }
  }
 }
}