{
 "what": "Janela's calibrated forecast band per open-sea site and 12 h lead bin: exact conformal intervals (miss-rate 1/10) of observed/forecast Hs and of observed - forecast 10 m wind speed (m/s), from the back-archive pairs (ECMWF open data vs NOAA RADS NRT altimetry). The band for a forecast f is [f*lo, f*hi]; for a forecast wind (u, v), [s_lo + lo, s_hi + hi] with [s_lo, s_hi] the enclosure of sqrt(u^2+v^2), floored at 0.",
 "theorem": "IF the next ratio is exchangeable with the calibration ratios of its site and lead bin, THEN P(lo <= next <= hi) = (u - l)/(n + 1) exactly (>= with ties) — instruments/forecast/conformal.js",
 "hypothesis": "exchangeability within a site and a 12 h lead bin, over 2023-07..2026-10 and all seasons; graded going forward by the ledger (exact binomial admission)",
 "region": "sergipe",
 "caveat": "The platforms stand in 13-38 m of water 5-20 km off the coast, where an altimeter footprint is land-contaminated: the passes that count (547 in three years, >= 5 points within 100 km) see the sea 40-100 km out (median mean distance 70 km), deeper and rougher than at the platforms, while the forecast is read at the model's sea node 5 km off the coast. The measured ratio band therefore carries the shelf's gradient as well as the model's error (Hs at 24 h: 1.13-1.62 x the forecast, against 0.86-1.20 at Santos): it leans HIGH for the platforms — conservative by construction, and stated wherever it decides.",
 "borrow": {},
 "source": {
  "matchups": "corpus/janela/regions/sergipe/matchups.json.gz",
  "sha256": "e52038d93d6aa46288a1110917d0f0a4fcd90e0468c2ea8b596113b73cbdb9ec",
  "rows": 3096
 },
 "miss": "1/10",
 "binHours": 12,
 "sites": {
  "sergipe": {
   "bins": {
    "0": {
     "from": 0,
     "to": 12,
     "hs": {
      "n": 263,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "4472168251392/3823360298875",
      "hi": "135127187324928/84763637607545",
      "loDec": "1.169",
      "hiDec": "1.594",
      "l": 12,
      "u": 252,
      "coverage": "240/264"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 263,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-16688294564779072958882915191/21708482700902400000000000000",
      "hi": "605564730616416946088258603/195932972069683200000000000",
      "loDec": "-0.768",
      "hiDec": "3.090",
      "l": 12,
      "u": 252,
      "coverage": "240/264",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "12": {
     "from": 12,
     "to": 132,
     "hs": {
      "n": 180,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "216895848448/187968217181",
      "hi": "886429710286848/564183168559375",
      "loDec": "1.153",
      "hiDec": "1.571",
      "l": 8,
      "u": 173,
      "coverage": "165/181"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 180,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-813971015536229899123/633318697598976000000",
      "hi": "15041476706687352924571483/4007719883243520000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.285",
      "hiDec": "3.753",
      "l": 8,
      "u": 173,
      "coverage": "165/181",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "24": {
     "from": 24,
     "to": 252,
     "hs": {
      "n": 263,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "559021031424/494890880185",
      "hi": "3555964485632/2197357376315",
      "loDec": "1.129",
      "hiDec": "1.618",
      "l": 12,
      "u": 252,
      "coverage": "240/264"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 263,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-12721447850280548693161/12468461858979840000000",
      "hi": "10036646572804688281487987/3562417673994240000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.020",
      "hiDec": "2.817",
      "l": 12,
      "u": 252,
      "coverage": "240/264",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "36": {
     "from": 36,
     "to": 372,
     "hs": {
      "n": 180,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "443756021022720/400733460501751",
      "hi": "2090374004736/1339553760293",
      "loDec": "1.107",
      "hiDec": "1.560",
      "l": 8,
      "u": 173,
      "coverage": "165/181"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 180,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-534612207195863876251/316659348799488000000",
      "hi": "997107777446891120598401/256494072527585280000000",
      "loDec": "-1.688",
      "hiDec": "3.887",
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      "coverage": "165/181",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "48": {
     "from": 48,
     "to": 492,
     "hs": {
      "n": 262,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "15510200647680/13958238940789",
      "hi": "1714142922670080/1048256354796199",
      "loDec": "1.111",
      "hiDec": "1.635",
      "l": 12,
      "u": 251,
      "coverage": "239/263"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 262,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-2275787620852330038456821/1781208836997120000000000",
      "hi": "2138880538207963709125841/712483534798848000000000",
      "loDec": "-1.277",
      "hiDec": "3.002",
      "l": 12,
      "u": 251,
      "coverage": "239/263",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "60": {
     "from": 60,
     "to": 612,
     "hs": {
      "n": 180,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "14270028840960/13138011307403",
      "hi": "5991633996742656/3698043535097333",
      "loDec": "1.086",
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      "coverage": "165/181"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 180,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "-5773430295535563493569371/4156153952993280000000000",
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      "coverage": "165/181",
      "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed"
     }
    },
    "72": {
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     "to": 732,
     "hs": {
      "n": 262,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "3376649601024/3140621473153",
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      "loDec": "1.075",
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      "l": 12,
      "u": 251,
      "coverage": "239/263"
     },
     "windDiff": {
      "n": 262,
      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
      "lo": "102299678539776/96272567823625",
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      "coverage": "165/181"
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
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      "coverage": "239/263"
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
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      "coverage": "165/181"
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
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      "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE",
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   }
  }
 }
}