{ "what": "Janela's calibrated forecast band per open-sea site and 12 h lead bin: exact conformal intervals (miss-rate 1/10) of observed/forecast Hs and of observed - forecast 10 m wind speed (m/s), from the back-archive pairs (ECMWF open data vs NOAA RADS NRT altimetry). The band for a forecast f is [f*lo, f*hi]; for a forecast wind (u, v), [s_lo + lo, s_hi + hi] with [s_lo, s_hi] the enclosure of sqrt(u^2+v^2), floored at 0.", "theorem": "IF the next ratio is exchangeable with the calibration ratios of its site and lead bin, THEN P(lo <= next <= hi) = (u - l)/(n + 1) exactly (>= with ties) — instruments/forecast/conformal.js", "hypothesis": "exchangeability within a site and a 12 h lead bin, over 2023-07..2026-10 and all seasons; graded going forward by the ledger (exact binomial admission)", "borrow": { "babitonga": "floripa", "sao-sebastiao": "santos", "ilha-grande": "santos", "sepetiba": "santos" }, "source": { "matchups": "corpus/janela/matchups.json.gz", "sha256": "82d8f09af79fcc2c084ec57b68d6e8ee642cb39495282a63a0dad09406c4e7fb", "rows": 45987 }, "miss": "1/10", "binHours": 12, "sites": { "santos": { "bins": { "0": { "from": 0, "to": 12, "hs": { "n": 409, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "823224434688000/962939631143959", "hi": "22676353581056/19446755308055", "loDec": "0.854", "hiDec": "1.166", "l": 20, "u": 390, "coverage": "370/410" }, "windDiff": { "n": 409, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-125023073638817245045384632209/86586540687360000000000000000", "hi": "737313233054193005943077/231557148809625600000000", "loDec": "-1.443", "hiDec": "3.184", "l": 20, "u": 390, "coverage": "370/410", "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed" } }, "12": { "from": 12, "to": 132, "hs": { "n": 335, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "648394032807936/766042471431385", "hi": "11748614602752/9813299023411", "loDec": "0.846", "hiDec": "1.197", "l": 16, "u": 320, "coverage": "304/336" }, "windDiff": { "n": 335, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-1983255307721767660606517/1345802232397824000000000", "hi": "784705631151907573817407/256494072527585280000000", "loDec": "-1.473", "hiDec": "3.059", "l": 16, "u": 320, "coverage": "304/336", "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed" } }, "24": { "from": 24, "to": 252, "hs": { "n": 409, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "986210390507520/1145088905501747", "hi": "21818165428224/18192230604485", "loDec": "0.861", "hiDec": "1.199", "l": 20, "u": 390, "coverage": "370/410" }, "windDiff": { "n": 409, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-17738080505712755865911/10019299708108800000000", "hi": "80767931447701884497/25125558681600000000", "loDec": "-1.770", "hiDec": "3.214", "l": 20, "u": 390, "coverage": "370/410", "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed" } }, "36": { "from": 36, "to": 372, "hs": { "n": 334, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "26017193892249600/31423797843726269", "hi": "7144678096896000/5734946698714189", "loDec": "0.827", "hiDec": "1.245", "l": 16, "u": 319, "coverage": "303/335" }, "windDiff": { "n": 334, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-1368623977103690052115818120343/694671446428876800000000000000", "hi": "6084204164317211459548201/1781208836997120000000000", "loDec": "-1.970", "hiDec": "3.415", "l": 16, "u": 319, "coverage": "303/335", "unit": "m/s, observed - forecast speed" } }, "48": { "from": 48, "to": 492, "hs": { "n": 409, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "53981296459776/64175326181005", "hi": "8946953748480/7411201445939", "loDec": "0.841", "hiDec": "1.207", "l": 20, "u": 390, "coverage": "370/410" }, "windDiff": { "n": 409, "verdict": "CERTIFIED-COVERAGE", "lo": "-407288812415112527685263769469/178120883699712000000000000000", "hi": "1774968523959376832250539/534362651099136000000000", "loDec": "-2.286", "hiDec": "3.321", "l": 20, "u": 390, "coverage": "370/410", "unit": "m/s, observed - 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