{
 "what": "Whether ECMWF's data-driven AIFS Single wave forecast earns a place beside IFS and NOAA GFS-Wave: every band calibrated before 2026-08-01 and judged on the satellite passes after (apps/janela/audit/providers_aifs.py; rule dated in DEFINITIONS.json as providers-eval-aifs-v1; a floating-point evaluation).",
 "pairs": {
  "ecmwf": 45987,
  "noaa": 53538,
  "aifs": 6659,
  "joinedHistory": 45987,
  "joinedThree": 6659,
  "calibrationLong": 42879,
  "calibrationShort": 3551,
  "test": 3108,
  "testCommon": 3108,
  "split": "2026-08-01",
  "aifsFirst": "2026-05-13"
 },
 "options": {
  "E": "IFS Hs x its band, calibrated on its own history from 2023-07-12",
  "N": "NOAA GFS-Wave Hs x its band, likewise",
  "A": "AIFS Single Hs x its band, calibrated on its own pairs from 2026-05-13",
  "E-short": "IFS on A's short window (the model separated from the calibration length)",
  "M(E,A)": "the plain mean of IFS and AIFS on A's window",
  "U(E,N)": "today's deciding rule (providers-v1)",
  "U(E,N,A)": "the three-band union",
  "U(E,A)": "IFS and AIFS"
 },
 "miss": "1/10",
 "results": [
  {
   "n": 3108,
   "coverage": 0.9064,
   "meanWidthM": 1.0088,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 324,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1685,
     "wrongVetada": 12
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 853,
     "brokeLiberada": 6,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 734,
     "wrongVetada": 24
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1594,
     "brokeLiberada": 15,
     "brokeBy10pc": 5,
     "vetada": 336,
     "wrongVetada": 10
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 2501,
     "brokeLiberada": 8,
     "brokeBy10pc": 3,
     "vetada": 32,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    }
   },
   "option": "E"
  },
  {
   "n": 3108,
   "coverage": 0.8517,
   "meanWidthM": 1.1161,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 208,
     "brokeLiberada": 6,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 1799,
     "wrongVetada": 29
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 743,
     "brokeLiberada": 7,
     "brokeBy10pc": 5,
     "vetada": 785,
     "wrongVetada": 72
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1388,
     "brokeLiberada": 6,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 248,
     "wrongVetada": 20
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 2448,
     "brokeLiberada": 9,
     "brokeBy10pc": 3,
     "vetada": 19,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    }
   },
   "option": "N"
  },
  {
   "n": 3108,
   "coverage": 0.9466,
   "meanWidthM": 1.3342,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 251,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1159,
     "wrongVetada": 3
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 753,
     "brokeLiberada": 3,
     "brokeBy10pc": 1,
     "vetada": 485,
     "wrongVetada": 13
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1496,
     "brokeLiberada": 13,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 212,
     "wrongVetada": 4
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 2410,
     "brokeLiberada": 3,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 17,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "A"
  },
  {
   "n": 3108,
   "coverage": 0.9511,
   "meanWidthM": 1.4232,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 269,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1170,
     "wrongVetada": 7
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 721,
     "brokeLiberada": 3,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 493,
     "wrongVetada": 14
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1413,
     "brokeLiberada": 9,
     "brokeBy10pc": 3,
     "vetada": 224,
     "wrongVetada": 5
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 2301,
     "brokeLiberada": 4,
     "brokeBy10pc": 3,
     "vetada": 28,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    }
   },
   "option": "E-short"
  },
  {
   "n": 3108,
   "coverage": 0.9463,
   "meanWidthM": 1.2851,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 297,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1224,
     "wrongVetada": 5
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 767,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 520,
     "wrongVetada": 14
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1510,
     "brokeLiberada": 11,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 230,
     "wrongVetada": 5
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 2397,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 24,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    }
   },
   "option": "M(E,A)"
  },
  {
   "n": 3108,
   "coverage": 0.9636,
   "meanWidthM": 1.3345,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 197,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1541,
     "wrongVetada": 8
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 677,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 574,
     "wrongVetada": 5
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1309,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 1,
     "vetada": 203,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 2308,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 12,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "U(E,N)"
  },
  {
   "n": 3108,
   "coverage": 0.9849,
   "meanWidthM": 1.6012,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 168,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1057,
     "wrongVetada": 1
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 607,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 394,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1220,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 157,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 2225,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 11,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "U(E,N,A)"
  },
  {
   "n": 3108,
   "coverage": 0.9678,
   "meanWidthM": 1.4397,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 232,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1101,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 694,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 445,
     "wrongVetada": 7
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1395,
     "brokeLiberada": 10,
     "brokeBy10pc": 1,
     "vetada": 200,
     "wrongVetada": 4
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 2333,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 17,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "U(E,A)"
  }
 ],
 "skillOnTest": {
  "E": {
   "day 0": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.019,
    "rms": 0.264
   },
   "day 1": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.031,
    "rms": 0.291
   },
   "day 2": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.037,
    "rms": 0.287
   },
   "day 3": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.057,
    "rms": 0.314
   },
   "day 4": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.068,
    "rms": 0.376
   },
   "day 5": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.08,
    "rms": 0.411
   },
   "day 6": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.069,
    "rms": 0.571
   }
  },
  "N": {
   "day 0": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": -0.159,
    "rms": 0.321
   },
   "day 1": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": -0.137,
    "rms": 0.337
   },
   "day 2": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": -0.098,
    "rms": 0.361
   },
   "day 3": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": -0.063,
    "rms": 0.419
   },
   "day 4": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": -0.041,
    "rms": 0.484
   },
   "day 5": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": -0.042,
    "rms": 0.604
   },
   "day 6": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": -0.104,
    "rms": 0.662
   }
  },
  "A": {
   "day 0": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.029,
    "rms": 0.269
   },
   "day 1": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.065,
    "rms": 0.295
   },
   "day 2": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.091,
    "rms": 0.311
   },
   "day 3": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.104,
    "rms": 0.344
   },
   "day 4": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.111,
    "rms": 0.406
   },
   "day 5": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.103,
    "rms": 0.441
   },
   "day 6": {
    "n": 444,
    "bias": 0.132,
    "rms": 0.512
   }
  }
 },
 "decision": {
  "rule": "providers-eval-aifs-v1 (DEFINITIONS.json)",
  "enterCondition": false,
  "replaceConditionMetBy": [
   "U(E,A)"
  ],
  "verdict": "A meets the necessary condition to replace NOAA in the union (U(E,A) 694 LIBERADA, 1 broken against U(E,N) 677, 1 broken); the adoption is decided in DEFINITIONS.json"
 }
}