{
 "what": "Which band should decide when Janela has two forecast providers: each option judged on 15 held-out months of satellite passes it never saw (apps/janela/audit/providers.py; a floating-point evaluation \u2014 the deciding bands are exact).",
 "region": "sergipe",
 "pairs": {
  "ecmwf": 3096,
  "noaa": 3819,
  "joined": 3096,
  "calibration": 1493,
  "test": 1603,
  "split": "2025-07-01",
  "innerSplit": "2024-10-01"
 },
 "weightSelection": {
  "on": "inner split of the calibration years only (before 2024-10-01 -> 2024-10-01..2025-07-01)",
  "miss": "1/10",
  "grid": [
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.0,
    "coverage": 0.8873,
    "meanWidthM": 0.7679
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.25,
    "coverage": 0.8792,
    "meanWidthM": 0.6816
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.4,
    "coverage": 0.8804,
    "meanWidthM": 0.6464
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.5,
    "coverage": 0.8792,
    "meanWidthM": 0.6262
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.6,
    "coverage": 0.8664,
    "meanWidthM": 0.6106
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.67,
    "coverage": 0.8688,
    "meanWidthM": 0.6078
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.75,
    "coverage": 0.8676,
    "meanWidthM": 0.6113
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.85,
    "coverage": 0.8699,
    "meanWidthM": 0.6183
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 1.0,
    "coverage": 0.8699,
    "meanWidthM": 0.6376
   }
  ],
  "chosen": 0.5,
  "why": "validation width is flat at 0.5-0.6; the plain mean has no tuned parameter"
 },
 "options": {
  "E": "ECMWF's deterministic Hs x its conformal ratio band (calibrated-v1)",
  "N": "NOAA GFS-Wave's (calibrated-noaa-v1)",
  "M50": "the two providers' mean x its own conformal ratio band",
  "U(E,N)": "the union of E and N (providers-v1)"
 },
 "results": [
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.8715,
   "meanWidthM": 0.6513,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 280,
     "brokeLiberada": 3,
     "brokeBy10pc": 1,
     "vetada": 459,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 950,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 99,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1297,
     "brokeLiberada": 5,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1595,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "E",
   "miss": "1/10"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.8665,
   "meanWidthM": 0.636,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 295,
     "brokeLiberada": 9,
     "brokeBy10pc": 5,
     "vetada": 359,
     "wrongVetada": 1
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 999,
     "brokeLiberada": 6,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 50,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1389,
     "brokeLiberada": 8,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1597,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "N",
   "miss": "1/10"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.8802,
   "meanWidthM": 0.5965,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 301,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 1,
     "vetada": 438,
     "wrongVetada": 1
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 1018,
     "brokeLiberada": 3,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 93,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1377,
     "brokeLiberada": 8,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1600,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "M50",
   "miss": "1/10"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.9476,
   "meanWidthM": 0.7913,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 208,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 328,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 881,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 41,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1273,
     "brokeLiberada": 5,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1592,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "U(E,N)",
   "miss": "1/10"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.947,
   "meanWidthM": 0.8361,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 201,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 366,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 810,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 61,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1235,
     "brokeLiberada": 5,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1581,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "E",
   "miss": "1/20"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.9501,
   "meanWidthM": 0.9466,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 145,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 272,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 761,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 24,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1211,
     "brokeLiberada": 7,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1568,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "N",
   "miss": "1/20"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.9538,
   "meanWidthM": 0.7899,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 203,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 347,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 886,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 50,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1287,
     "brokeLiberada": 6,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1593,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "M50",
   "miss": "1/20"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.98,
   "meanWidthM": 1.057,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 106,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 241,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 659,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 19,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1135,
     "brokeLiberada": 5,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1555,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "U(E,N)",
   "miss": "1/20"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.9501,
   "meanWidthM": 0.9053,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 162,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 360,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 730,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 59,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1194,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 1,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1573,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "E",
   "miss": "1/40"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.9669,
   "meanWidthM": 1.1124,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 111,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 225,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 627,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 15,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1085,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1532,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "N",
   "miss": "1/40"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.9732,
   "meanWidthM": 0.9251,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 155,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 306,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 753,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 35,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1220,
     "brokeLiberada": 3,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1576,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "M50",
   "miss": "1/40"
  },
  {
   "n": 1603,
   "coverage": 0.9857,
   "meanWidthM": 1.1967,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 77,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 208,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 550,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 14,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 1025,
     "brokeLiberada": 1,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 1521,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 0,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "U(E,N)",
   "miss": "1/40"
  }
 ],
 "conditional": {
  "miss": "1/10",
  "by": "the providers' mean forecast Hs (regime) and the target's season; above = the sea over the upper edge",
  "options": {
   "E": {
    "regime": {
     "1-2 m": {
      "n": 1035,
      "coverage": 0.8841,
      "above": 0.028
     },
     "2-3 m": {
      "n": 7,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "above": 0.0
     },
     "<1 m": {
      "n": 561,
      "coverage": 0.8467,
      "above": 0.0499
     }
    },
    "season": {
     "DJF": {
      "n": 329,
      "coverage": 0.8389,
      "above": 0.0426
     },
     "JJA": {
      "n": 539,
      "coverage": 0.833,
      "above": 0.0315
     },
     "MAM": {
      "n": 315,
      "coverage": 0.8921,
      "above": 0.0635
     },
     "SON": {
      "n": 420,
      "coverage": 0.931,
      "above": 0.0143
     }
    }
   },
   "U(E,N)": {
    "regime": {
     "1-2 m": {
      "n": 1035,
      "coverage": 0.9604,
      "above": 0.0126
     },
     "2-3 m": {
      "n": 7,
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "above": 0.0
     },
     "<1 m": {
      "n": 561,
      "coverage": 0.9234,
      "above": 0.0267
     }
    },
    "season": {
     "DJF": {
      "n": 329,
      "coverage": 0.9271,
      "above": 0.0122
     },
     "JJA": {
      "n": 539,
      "coverage": 0.9481,
      "above": 0.0167
     },
     "MAM": {
      "n": 315,
      "coverage": 0.927,
      "above": 0.0349
     },
     "SON": {
      "n": 420,
      "coverage": 0.9786,
      "above": 0.0095
     }
    }
   }
  }
 }
}