{
 "what": "Which band should decide when Janela has two forecast providers: each option judged on 15 held-out months of satellite passes it never saw (apps/janela/audit/providers.py; a floating-point evaluation \u2014 the deciding bands are exact).",
 "pairs": {
  "ecmwf": 45987,
  "noaa": 53538,
  "joined": 45987,
  "calibration": 24728,
  "test": 21259,
  "split": "2025-07-01",
  "innerSplit": "2024-10-01"
 },
 "weightSelection": {
  "on": "inner split of the calibration years only (before 2024-10-01 -> 2024-10-01..2025-07-01)",
  "miss": "1/10",
  "grid": [
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.0,
    "coverage": 0.9261,
    "meanWidthM": 1.0102
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.25,
    "coverage": 0.9248,
    "meanWidthM": 0.9249
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.4,
    "coverage": 0.9229,
    "meanWidthM": 0.9014
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.5,
    "coverage": 0.921,
    "meanWidthM": 0.8913
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.6,
    "coverage": 0.9181,
    "meanWidthM": 0.8898
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.67,
    "coverage": 0.9163,
    "meanWidthM": 0.8921
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.75,
    "coverage": 0.9142,
    "meanWidthM": 0.8993
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 0.85,
    "coverage": 0.9145,
    "meanWidthM": 0.9137
   },
   {
    "wEcmwf": 1.0,
    "coverage": 0.9151,
    "meanWidthM": 0.9414
   }
  ],
  "chosen": 0.5,
  "why": "validation width is flat at 0.5-0.6; the plain mean has no tuned parameter"
 },
 "options": {
  "E": "ECMWF's deterministic Hs x its conformal ratio band (calibrated-v1)",
  "N": "NOAA GFS-Wave's (calibrated-noaa-v1)",
  "M50": "the two providers' mean x its own conformal ratio band",
  "U(E,N)": "the union of E and N (providers-v1)"
 },
 "results": [
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9105,
   "meanWidthM": 0.9326,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 2066,
     "brokeLiberada": 56,
     "brokeBy10pc": 15,
     "vetada": 8853,
     "wrongVetada": 81
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 7900,
     "brokeLiberada": 87,
     "brokeBy10pc": 24,
     "vetada": 3118,
     "wrongVetada": 81
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 13126,
     "brokeLiberada": 81,
     "brokeBy10pc": 26,
     "vetada": 1072,
     "wrongVetada": 38
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 18926,
     "brokeLiberada": 37,
     "brokeBy10pc": 8,
     "vetada": 147,
     "wrongVetada": 5
    }
   },
   "option": "E",
   "miss": "1/10"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9048,
   "meanWidthM": 1.0079,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 1659,
     "brokeLiberada": 57,
     "brokeBy10pc": 6,
     "vetada": 8850,
     "wrongVetada": 89
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 7106,
     "brokeLiberada": 90,
     "brokeBy10pc": 41,
     "vetada": 2802,
     "wrongVetada": 134
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 12504,
     "brokeLiberada": 98,
     "brokeBy10pc": 29,
     "vetada": 844,
     "wrongVetada": 49
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 18773,
     "brokeLiberada": 47,
     "brokeBy10pc": 17,
     "vetada": 113,
     "wrongVetada": 5
    }
   },
   "option": "N",
   "miss": "1/10"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9071,
   "meanWidthM": 0.8808,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 2041,
     "brokeLiberada": 48,
     "brokeBy10pc": 5,
     "vetada": 9388,
     "wrongVetada": 84
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 7955,
     "brokeLiberada": 77,
     "brokeBy10pc": 21,
     "vetada": 3197,
     "wrongVetada": 109
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 13331,
     "brokeLiberada": 83,
     "brokeBy10pc": 23,
     "vetada": 991,
     "wrongVetada": 32
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 19161,
     "brokeLiberada": 38,
     "brokeBy10pc": 9,
     "vetada": 145,
     "wrongVetada": 3
    }
   },
   "option": "M50",
   "miss": "1/10"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9651,
   "meanWidthM": 1.1722,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 1273,
     "brokeLiberada": 12,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 7621,
     "wrongVetada": 31
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 6368,
     "brokeLiberada": 21,
     "brokeBy10pc": 4,
     "vetada": 2221,
     "wrongVetada": 27
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 11703,
     "brokeLiberada": 26,
     "brokeBy10pc": 9,
     "vetada": 671,
     "wrongVetada": 14
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 18221,
     "brokeLiberada": 14,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 89,
     "wrongVetada": 1
    }
   },
   "option": "U(E,N)",
   "miss": "1/10"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9615,
   "meanWidthM": 1.2123,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 1334,
     "brokeLiberada": 23,
     "brokeBy10pc": 7,
     "vetada": 7130,
     "wrongVetada": 38
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 6370,
     "brokeLiberada": 46,
     "brokeBy10pc": 7,
     "vetada": 2343,
     "wrongVetada": 33
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 11610,
     "brokeLiberada": 40,
     "brokeBy10pc": 13,
     "vetada": 748,
     "wrongVetada": 15
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 17995,
     "brokeLiberada": 11,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 117,
     "wrongVetada": 3
    }
   },
   "option": "E",
   "miss": "1/20"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9531,
   "meanWidthM": 1.2759,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 1076,
     "brokeLiberada": 31,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 7137,
     "wrongVetada": 50
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 5678,
     "brokeLiberada": 47,
     "brokeBy10pc": 14,
     "vetada": 2032,
     "wrongVetada": 79
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 10976,
     "brokeLiberada": 53,
     "brokeBy10pc": 19,
     "vetada": 599,
     "wrongVetada": 26
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 17832,
     "brokeLiberada": 22,
     "brokeBy10pc": 8,
     "vetada": 77,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    }
   },
   "option": "N",
   "miss": "1/20"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9596,
   "meanWidthM": 1.1287,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 1387,
     "brokeLiberada": 19,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 7718,
     "wrongVetada": 43
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 6554,
     "brokeLiberada": 38,
     "brokeBy10pc": 6,
     "vetada": 2390,
     "wrongVetada": 42
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 11861,
     "brokeLiberada": 42,
     "brokeBy10pc": 13,
     "vetada": 727,
     "wrongVetada": 14
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 18402,
     "brokeLiberada": 12,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 102,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    }
   },
   "option": "M50",
   "miss": "1/20"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9878,
   "meanWidthM": 1.4592,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 769,
     "brokeLiberada": 5,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 5898,
     "wrongVetada": 13
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 4937,
     "brokeLiberada": 13,
     "brokeBy10pc": 1,
     "vetada": 1619,
     "wrongVetada": 14
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 10166,
     "brokeLiberada": 10,
     "brokeBy10pc": 3,
     "vetada": 464,
     "wrongVetada": 5
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 17085,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 63,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "U(E,N)",
   "miss": "1/20"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9863,
   "meanWidthM": 1.6252,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 637,
     "brokeLiberada": 8,
     "brokeBy10pc": 1,
     "vetada": 5194,
     "wrongVetada": 18
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 4292,
     "brokeLiberada": 20,
     "brokeBy10pc": 3,
     "vetada": 1557,
     "wrongVetada": 20
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 9241,
     "brokeLiberada": 16,
     "brokeBy10pc": 8,
     "vetada": 463,
     "wrongVetada": 8
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 16212,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 83,
     "wrongVetada": 2
    }
   },
   "option": "E",
   "miss": "1/40"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9815,
   "meanWidthM": 1.7179,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 544,
     "brokeLiberada": 8,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 5137,
     "wrongVetada": 25
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 3713,
     "brokeLiberada": 15,
     "brokeBy10pc": 4,
     "vetada": 1281,
     "wrongVetada": 30
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 8563,
     "brokeLiberada": 30,
     "brokeBy10pc": 15,
     "vetada": 374,
     "wrongVetada": 10
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 15859,
     "brokeLiberada": 10,
     "brokeBy10pc": 5,
     "vetada": 47,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "N",
   "miss": "1/40"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9844,
   "meanWidthM": 1.5134,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 711,
     "brokeLiberada": 7,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 5758,
     "wrongVetada": 19
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 4541,
     "brokeLiberada": 17,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 1573,
     "wrongVetada": 22
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 9645,
     "brokeLiberada": 14,
     "brokeBy10pc": 3,
     "vetada": 463,
     "wrongVetada": 7
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 16720,
     "brokeLiberada": 2,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 72,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "M50",
   "miss": "1/40"
  },
  {
   "n": 21259,
   "coverage": 0.9958,
   "meanWidthM": 1.9414,
   "limits": {
    "1.5": {
     "liberada": 321,
     "brokeLiberada": 3,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 3999,
     "wrongVetada": 8
    },
    "2.0": {
     "liberada": 3004,
     "brokeLiberada": 4,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 997,
     "wrongVetada": 8
    },
    "2.5": {
     "liberada": 7594,
     "brokeLiberada": 5,
     "brokeBy10pc": 2,
     "vetada": 286,
     "wrongVetada": 3
    },
    "3.5": {
     "liberada": 14845,
     "brokeLiberada": 0,
     "brokeBy10pc": 0,
     "vetada": 42,
     "wrongVetada": 0
    }
   },
   "option": "U(E,N)",
   "miss": "1/40"
  }
 ],
 "conditional": {
  "miss": "1/10",
  "by": "the providers' mean forecast Hs (regime) and the target's season; above = the sea over the upper edge",
  "options": {
   "E": {
    "regime": {
     "1-2 m": {
      "n": 13334,
      "coverage": 0.9127,
      "above": 0.0578
     },
     "2-3 m": {
      "n": 6245,
      "coverage": 0.9148,
      "above": 0.0397
     },
     "<1 m": {
      "n": 497,
      "coverage": 0.837,
      "above": 0.1207
     },
     ">=3 m": {
      "n": 1183,
      "coverage": 0.8943,
      "above": 0.0507
     }
    },
    "season": {
     "DJF": {
      "n": 4025,
      "coverage": 0.9081,
      "above": 0.0557
     },
     "JJA": {
      "n": 7021,
      "coverage": 0.8937,
      "above": 0.0625
     },
     "MAM": {
      "n": 4242,
      "coverage": 0.9154,
      "above": 0.0559
     },
     "SON": {
      "n": 5971,
      "coverage": 0.9285,
      "above": 0.04
     }
    }
   },
   "U(E,N)": {
    "regime": {
     "1-2 m": {
      "n": 13334,
      "coverage": 0.9672,
      "above": 0.0207
     },
     "2-3 m": {
      "n": 6245,
      "coverage": 0.9656,
      "above": 0.0136
     },
     "<1 m": {
      "n": 497,
      "coverage": 0.9416,
      "above": 0.0483
     },
     ">=3 m": {
      "n": 1183,
      "coverage": 0.9501,
      "above": 0.0178
     }
    },
    "season": {
     "DJF": {
      "n": 4025,
      "coverage": 0.9742,
      "above": 0.0139
     },
     "JJA": {
      "n": 7021,
      "coverage": 0.954,
      "above": 0.0256
     },
     "MAM": {
      "n": 4242,
      "coverage": 0.9646,
      "above": 0.0212
     },
     "SON": {
      "n": 5971,
      "coverage": 0.9725,
      "above": 0.0134
     }
    }
   }
  }
 }
}